Here are my 2009 technology predictions. It was getting harder and harder since my post is starting to look a lot like everyone else’s posts. I look forward to a better year for the world in 2009. Drum roll please…
10. Video finally takes off
Overall consumption of video increases significantly on Web. I have been saying this since my days at AtomFilms but it really does happen in 2009. Video advertising is finally going to get some traction. Higher quality will bring more eyeballs. There are some even better video predictions from my friend Alex Castro of Delve Networks (in full disclosure, I am an advisor to his company). His are spot on. I do disagree with his prediction that YouTube will lose market share. I think they’ll grow from their current market share of videos watched from 37 percent to 45 percent.
9. More ad networks versus less
Contrary to a number of predictions, there will be more ad networks versus less. With 80 percent of the ad supply being sold through indirect channels, there will be more (rather than less) ad networks. There will be better control over supply by publishers, and everyone on this Comscore list will be there by the end of 2009. Anyone who is building unique IP will have a chance at an acquisition. Yield technology in advertising is going to be a big theme in 2009 since all other forms of targeting are basically commodities.
8. Everything is simpler and smaller
We don’t have the IT budgets that we once did. Smaller and simpler devices will take off. For example, industry sources say more than 11 million netbooks worldwide were sold in 2008, up from just around a million in 2007. Netbook sales will easily double in the new year. Also, the majority of all phones next year will be smart phones (over 50 percent).
7. The giant sucking sound
There are going to be tons and tons of consolidations in the technology space. Big guys will buy big guys. Small guys will merge with small guys. Small guys will get bought by big guys. There will be a lot of great deals out there for companies with capital.
6. It’s cooler to start a business than a rock band
There are massive layoffs and the economy is bad. Per the above, when consolidation happens, unemployment increases. People are only an hour away from registering online for
