we’re getting double the compute power every 12 to 14 months. That’s happening all through science, all through technology.”
Draper predicted (as others have) that new technologies will change our lives at an ever-faster pace. The kinds of transformations we’ve seen from inventions in the past 50 years—air travel, cell phones, Internet, e-mail, credit cards, the pill—will happen again in the next 15 to 20 years instead of 50. “Things are going to change much faster than most of us can imagine,” he said. He urged the audience to explore the implications of such far-out concepts as unlimited energy, immersive 3D entertainment, non-invasive surgery, near-thought communications, new life forms, and novel food supplies.
So think big—really big. “A self-navigating electric car—that’s kind of boring. If this is in my imagination, you’ve got to go way beyond that. So go for a self-navigating flying electric car,” he said.
4. It’s about “zeroed business models.” In successful company pitches, Draper said he looks for entrepreneurs who zero out some key existing costs, like inventory and accounts (e.g., Amazon) or marketing expenses (e.g., Hotmail, Skype). But you don’t want to zero out sales or revenues, he quipped. Sounds like the practical side of a revolution to me.
5. It’s also about global collaboration. “Free trade is really important, but the only way to understand it is if you put a wall up,” Draper said. Saying we’re only going to hire American workers or buy American goods, for example, doesn’t help innovation anywhere. Without China, he pointed out, we’d essentially have no semiconductors, no flat screen TVs, and no memory devices. Things like tariffs, customs, quotas, subsidies— they “all get in the way of our deal,” he said.
Draper then tried to lead the audience in an inspirational sing-along of “The Riskmaster” (an entrepreneurial song whose lyrics he penned), but most of the room didn’t play along. Not sure what to make of that, other than that we Seattleites take our music, and our VCs, a little too seriously.
After his talk, someone from the audience asked how Draper’s home state, California, compares with Washington state in terms of rules and regulations. Interestingly, he seemed to think Washington is doing better than California in the realm of K-12 education—the grass is always greener, I suppose. “I’ve always thought competition in [K-12] education would be a really good thing,” Draper said. “I was on the State Board of Education, and it’s controlled by a very small group of people telling us all what we’re supposed to learn.” Education reform may take time, but it’s not too late, he said. “A kid who’s six now—10 years on, he’s going on to start Microsoft.”
